TAA


On balance, the systems are moving out of emerging markets (VWO), and into foreign developed (EFA) and REITs (VNQ).  There seems to be very little going on in terms of interesting variations among the flavors of the systems, except for the fact that the Vanilla benchmark system is increasing its allocation to VWO and abandoning VNQ, which is the opposite of what most of the other systems have done.

January was great, February was okay, and March was a mild disappointment.  February, March, and year to date results coming soon.

April 2012 Timid Vanilla Smooth Classic Plus Full Tilt Composite
IEF 44 8 13.0
IWM 28 50 50 50 46 100 43.5
EFA 11 17.5 21 35 16.8
VWO 50 0.0
DBC 0.0
VNQ 17 32.5 50 25 65 26.8
GLD 0.0
Cash 0.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 200 100

 

Well now, here’s an interesting thing…practically all of the models have converged on US stocks and Emerging Market stocks.  Most of the models are shifting away from REITs and allocating more to emerging markets.  So much for seven flavors!  I have also noticed the underperformance of the Russell 2000 compared to the S&P 500 over the last two weeks and have been tempted to shift my US allocation from IWM to SPY, but I have not done so.  It looks like February will close in the black in my live accounts…full details to come.

March 2012 Timid Vanilla Smooth Classic Plus Full Tilt Composite
IEF 48 8 13.8
IWM 26 50 50 50 46 100 43.1
EFA
VWO 26 25 50 50 46 100 43.1
DBC
VNQ 25
GLD
Cash
Total 100 100 100 100 100 200 100

 

 

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