August 2008


This week’s results: 

Cable Glider — 0 wins , 0 losses

Euro Ranger — 1 win, 0 losses

This week, the account had a net gain.

This month, the Cable Glider is showing a net gain.

This month, the Euro Ranger is showing a net gain.

This month, Euro Ranger has been more profitable.

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This week was very tame.  Event driven filters kept both systems out of the market on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Cable Glider remained idle for the rest of the week due to a weekly range filter.  Euro Ranger took one short trade on Thursday which got closed out profitably on Friday afternoon.

For the month, the account finished with a tiny gain.  Both systems were profitable this month, but I had missed a signal in the Euro Ranger, and I didn’t have Cable Glider turned on at all until the second half of the month.  It’s been such a bad year so far…not losing definitely feels like a win. 

For September, I will continue to trade both systems.  The backtest results for the combined systems showed a maximum drawdown of around $3600.  Given this fact, I have decided to go with a very simple position sizing algorithm.  I will trade one contract per $35000 of trading capital.  The idea is to stay out of a deep, unrecoverable drawdown situation.  The worst drawdowns are always ahead…if the actual systems show a $7000 drawdown on a single contract basis in the future, that will be a 20%…and that can be recovered with a 25% gain. 

I think it’s safe to say that when I was having such spectacular success with a highly leveraged version of Cable Glider in 2007, I had visions of becoming of a millionaire within a couple of years.  Dropping the get rich quick mentality has been highly beneficial.  I like trading.  I like building systems.  I’ll keep on doing these things, always striving to improve my methods and my results. 

If I ever somehow try to convince myself to shut one of my systems down without real objective proof that the system should be shut off, I need only refer to the following chart, which shows how much better the Euro Ranger and Cable Glider work together than they do separately, and I should be cured of such a foolish notion.

These results are on the backtest page.  This is the power of trading uncorrelated systems.  Higher profit, lower variance.

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Cable Glider

Euro Ranger

Combined

Average Gain per week

$192

$259

$451

Maximum Drawdown

($3,911)

($3,808)

($3,587)

Standard Error

$50

$55

$73

Median

$107

$214

$384

Mode

$0

$0

$0

Standard Deviation

$619

$675

$896

Coefficient of Variation

3.23

2.61

1.99

Kurtosis

1.57

1.65

0.91

Skewness

0.56

0.28

-0.02

Worst Week

($1,567)

($1,761)

($2,679)

Best Week

$2,201

$2,401

$2,833

Number of weeks

151

151

151

positive weeks

85

99

104

negative weeks

46

35

40

breakeven weeks

20

17

6

% Negative weeks

30%

23%

27%

Total Net Profit

$28,948

$39,124

$68,072

Correlation

(0.04)

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