Well, I took no trades this week. My systems’ economic event filters would have had me sit out almost all week anyway. I chose not to trade after the employment report this morning, and for the first time in about 6 months, this was a mistake, as both of my production systems would have logged gains today.
Oh well, it’s water under the bridge. I’ve settled on what levels of risk to use going forward. I’m taking my cash hedge to 67% of my total account and trading the remaining 33% of the account at a 13% risk per trade, and I’ll rebalance the account monthly. I’m fully aware that I could review this in the future and still consider it to be “gun-slinging”, so I can’t officially label this as the beginning of a low risk trading era for me. Maybe I’ve just downgraded from psycho to aggressive.
The use of a large cash hedge accomplishes two things. It keeps my maximum possible monthly drawdown at 33%, which is well below the actual drawdowns I’ve experienced over the past year. It also cuts risk aggressively in the event of a losing streak. If I had been trading this way in January and on the first day of February, I would have experienced a drawdown of around 20% and I’d be sitting at the 13% drawdown level currently. The key here is to prevent a recurrence of a quick, sharp drawdown that would cause me to shut down trading at an equity trough.
Even as I write this, I’m inclined to cut my risk in half again….