February 2008


# winning trades (CG/ER) : 3/1

# losing trades (CG/ER) : 3/0

Total Return Month to Date: -3.1% 

I’m still going through a transition period.  Last week, I found myself unable to stick with my trading plan, and I hurt my results slightly.  This week I cut my risk to the bare minimum so that there would be no chance that I would override a signal.  There was only one trade entered this week, for a 125 pip gain on the long side in the British pound.  Since I had cut my risk down so much, I am still underwater for the month. 

Today marks the end of my first stint as a full-time trader.  I’m starting a new job on Monday, and for the foreseeable future, I’ll need to keep my risk in the futures market quite low so that it is not a distraction while I am adjusting to the change.

In an attempt to unmarry myself from the Cable Glider’s methodology, I plan to report only the combined results of both of my systems.  Further study has revealed that these systems do complement each other quite nicely, provided that enough of my total risk is allocated to the Euro Ranger system.

I have a feeling that things might get quite “boring” around here.  I certainly won’t be producing any spectacular gains in the near future, but of course, I hope to never see another 40 plus percent drawdown either.

The Cable Glider system is up about 5% this month.  In truth, it had 2 terrible weeks in January, followed by a small recovery and some sideways action.  All the while, Euro Ranger has posted a perfect record.  Only time will tell, but perhaps I’ll look back on this day and realize that I panicked and jumped back into a job too quickly.  Indeed, it’s very possible that I don’t “need” a job at this point, but at the same time, I don’t “need” to be trading full-time to be effective.  The only thing that’s certain is that as long as I have a job, I don’t need to take money from my trading account to pay my living expenses, and after 9 months, that’s a welcome change. :-)

# winning trades (CG/ER) : 2/0

# losing trades (CG/ER) : 1/0

CG Return: 1.1%

Hedge (ER) Return: 0%

Total Return Month to Date: 1.1% 

Well, as I mentioned in prior posts, I have turned down my risk levels considerably.  The trading conditions for Cable Glider (the trend follower) continue to be poor, but the conditions for the Euro Ranger (the mean reversion “overshooter”) continue to be favorable.  Again, I did not trade the Euro Ranger live this week, only the Cable Glider. 

My state of mind has not yet “normalized” and I’m still very much afraid to trade.  When I look at it objectively, I see three terrible weeks for Cable Glider at the beginning of the year, followed by three profitable weeks that I have not fully participated in.  It also appears that as volatility continues to be high, my volatility breakout entries in Cable Glider are not working well.  All the while, the Euro Ranger, which I don’t “like”, has had one of its best runs in recent memory.  So my tasks remain the same.  I need to find a level of risk that I am comfortable taking, I need to allocate my funds “smartly” between my two systems, and I need to “unmarry” my mind from the idea that the Cable Glider approach is better than the alternative…clearly, there is a season for all styles of trading.

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