# winning trades (CG/ER) : 3/2

# losing trades (CG/ER) : 3/1

CG Return: 1.2%

Hedge Return: 2.0%

Current Allocation (CG/ER): 75% / 25%

Total Return Month to Date: 1.4% 

I made two mistakes this week, and paid the rather hefty price of surrendering almost all of the profits I’ve earned this month.  Let’s see if I can break these mistakes down, correct them to whatever extent possible, and move on.

1)  I switched back and forth between an old system and a new one.  The result is that I have minimized my gains and maximized my losses.  I am reverting back to the old system, and I will monitor the new system in a 3 month forward test and re-evaluate at that time.  The new system appears to be better in that it has experienced shallower drawdowns, but I feel like I’ve overfit the system in order to achieve it.

2) Thanksgiving 2006 blinded my judgement.  I know that holiday weeks are typically bad times for me to trade, but last year’s Thanksgiving week showed me a great return.  Rather than treat that as an outlier and ignore it going forward, I chose to keep the Cable Glider active all of Thanksgiving week in 2007, and paid a price.  Next year, and going forward, I will not trade on market holidays and market half-days, which means that I will stay out of the market on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of Thanksgiving week.  If I had done that this week, I would have avoided getting whipsawed last Friday.

So just like that, I’m back near the bottom of the equity range that I’ve been stuck in since the middle of August, and my confidence is diminished.  Usually, journaling here helps to dissipate the pain of loss and get me back on track mentally.  Hopefully that will be the case this time as well.